-- By David Stickland / Global Dressage Analytics
It is that time of the pre-Olympic year when dressage enthusiasts start to get psyched up for the big events of 2024.
The Dressage at the Paris Olympics takes place from July 30 to August 4: Grand Prix on 30, 31 for all competitors, then the Special on August 3 for the Team medals and the Freestyle on August 4 for the Individual medals. The top ten teams from the GP go to the Special and the top 18 combinations from the GP go to the Freestyle (Spoiler alert, I estimate the qualifying score for the Freestyle will be about 73%.
So, the first question, which countries can send teams? Countries already qualified are: France, Denmark, Great Britain, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, United States of America, Austria, Belgium, Spain, Poland, Brazil, Canada and Australia.
Two Composite Teams to Replace Brazil and South Africa
But Brazil does not have three riders with the Minimum Eligibility Requirement (Basically two GP scores of 67%), so that has liberated one more Team place, and unfortunately no team from Group F (Africa) qualified so there are two places free for “Composite” teams.
Composite teams are constructed from the top 3 combinations per nation in the Olympic ranking lists, in the Ranking list of Dec 1 Finland had 2738 points, ahead of Portugal with 2716 and Norway with 2590, but Maria Pais Do Amaral and Hot Hit Old Campline were at Frankfurt and with a Freestyle at 75.550% they boosted the Portuguese Composite score to 2757. One other Portuguese rider, Antonio de Vale is still to compete in Mechelen this week, but that could only increase the Team score so it looks like Portugal and Finland will qualify composite teams for Paris when that selection closes on December 31.
A Tentative Team Prediction
It's a long time from now till the end of July and of course we really don’t know which combinations will actually be selected and what will happen between now and then, a few of the potential top few combinations have only just begun to compete; we may even see a few new horses competing in the next few months.
However, I can’t resist making a first prediction. I have taken the GP & GP Special trends for the last 12 months for all the potential team members (who competed in 2023) and used that to make a wild guess at the team makeups. And this is what it yields:
It would be foolish to read too much into this, but Great Britain is looking very strong if both Charlottes are on form. Denmark and Germany are dead level, as are Sweden and Netherlands. But, six months to go and three-member teams, a lot can happen.
Individual Starting Places
Then there are the 15 Individual places, the repartition is complicated going by region groups, and then by the overall ranking list, but my predictions are: Ecuador, Brazil, Dominican Republic, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg (2 places), Switzerland, Lithuania, Moldova, Morocco, Palestine, New Zealand, Singapore and Chile (although this latter country could turn into Korea if a Chilean rider is not able to score the MER in 2024). These are my predictions and are not confirmed, please keep in mind.
It is too early to make a prediction now for the Freestyle Individual medals, I think you all have a pretty good idea how the main competitors are going to be.
Tomorrow, the Para Olympics predictions….
Related Links
Eurodressage Coverage of the 2024 Olympic Games
David Stickland: Rio Predictions