-- By David Stickland / Global Dressage Analytics
The starting order for the GP is not known yet. There is of course a set of rules, but we won't know the final start list until after reserve substitutions and vet checks have happened on Sunday morning 28 July 2024.
Big Stars Will Go Early
Basically every horse gets a ranking from the FEI Horse ranking list and then assigned a number from 1-60 depending on the descending order of that ranking list. But only results from the past 8 months (1 Nov to 30 June) are included and.... There must be at least 2 GP results in that ranking and.... Glamourdale doesn't have 2 Grand Prix results in that period. So Glamourdale by definition goes to position 60 in the calculation of the starting order and from the table attached below you see that means they go first on the first day!
Not exactly what you might expect for a combination you would reasonably expect to end up in the top few scores for the GP.
Additional Rules
There are additional rules, the final order does not allow more than one rider per nation in each group, and no more than 2 riders per nation per day, so it gets complicated. The regaulations are on the FEI site.
- 4.1.2 The allocation of the starting order of the FEI Grand Prix Competition will be established after the Horse Inspection, in the presence of the President of the Ground Jury, Technical Delegate and Chefs d’Equipe.
- 4.1.3 Athletes compete in six (6) groups, with each group assigned a letter from A – F, with three (3) groups competing on the first day and the remaining three (3) groups on the second day. The following principles apply: (i) a maximum of two (2) Athletes per NF may start per day; and (ii) there shall be no more than one (1) Athlete per NF per group.
- 4.1.4 The Athlete/Horse combinations’ starting order for the FEI Grand Prix Competition is based on the FEI World Ranking List position of the Horse in the FEI Dressage World Ranking – Horses in effect on the date of definite entries. The Athlete/Horse combinations shall be positioned in the six (6) groups, as per Table 1 below with the highest ranked Horse in position #1, the second highest ranked Horse in position #2, and so on until all Athlete/Horse combinations are placed.
- 4.1.6 During the above process of positioning the Athletes, if either or both of the criteria referenced in art. 4.1.3 (i) and (ii) cannot be fulfilled, the Athlete’s position shall be moved to the next available position that fulfils those criteria. The next Athlete in the list will be placed in the first available starting position fulfilling the criteria for 4.1.3 (i) and (ii).
- 4.1.7 If the position remaining for the last Athlete/Horse combination to be placed in a group does not fulfil the criteria of art 4.1.3 (i) and (ii), this Athlete/Horse combination will be moved to the nearest starting position that fulfils those criteria, provided that the criteria of 4.1.3(i) and (ii) must be met for both the last Athlete/Horse combination and the Athlete/Horse combination with whom the last Athlete/Horse combination swaps position
Personal Prediction
My personal prediction, if I interpreted the rules correctly - and they are rather imprecise, i.e. what does "the next available position" mean exactly - is that the first group A is going to be simply awesome. While in a theoretical world the top combinations are supposed to go last in each group, some of the top combinations have only gone out a few times in the last 8 months (like Blue Hors Zepter), so while they got a lot of points when they went out, that doesnt catch up with the combinations that went out the 8 times that get included in the ranking!
of the rules
Be In Your Seat!
Your mileage may vary, but I think if you're lucky enough to be at the competition on Tuesday you might want to be in your seat in good time at the start of the day!
Related Links
Two Months Till the 2024 Dressage Olympics - What the Data Says for Team Predictions
David Stickland: End of Year Olympic Predictions for Paris