Two Months Till the 2024 Dressage Olympics - What the Data Says for Team Predictions

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2024 Olympic Games

-- By David Stickland / Global Dressage Analytics

There are two months till the 2024 Olympic Games and with the spring competition season in full swing and all top combination having produced their first CDI results this season, a picture of the potential teams for Paris can be made based on statistical data.

Lifetime Ambition

The Grand Prix kicks off on July 30^th in Versailles. The two days of grand Prix act as the selection (best ten teams) for the Team Final (The Grand Prix Special) and as the selection for the top 18 individuals to go to the Freestyle and the Individual medal. So, while it is not a medal winning test, it is the vital stepping stone.

I’ve been analyzing the results from around the world to get a picture of how things might pan out. Now, it’s easy to just concentrate on who is going to win what, but of the 60 athletes in the Grand Prix maybe as few as 9 will medal, but this will still be one of the most important sporting achievements of their lifetime for them all. Just being there is a lifetime ambition for many riders and horse owners and breeders.

Potential Teams Based on Scores

Of course, nobody knows the actual team compositions yet, and all I can do is look at the history and trends, make predictions, and “select” combinations based just on that data and the scores that were achieved recently. Again, each country’s selectors have to take into account additional factors (health, team spirt, experience), but this at least can give us an idea of how things might go and who might be competing.

In my analysis I include results from both the Grand Prix and Grand Prix Special. I do that to improve the statistical precision of the predictions. I take account of when the tests have been run and I fit projections to all the results they have in the past 12 months. By now almost all the potential combinations have been out in 2024, with the big late arrival being Glamourdale just last week in Aachen.

I compile statistics on all riders that have competed at least twice with a score above 63%. The MER (Minimum Eligibility Requirement) set by the FEI and the Olympic Committee is two times 67% at a “MER approved event” with also requirements on the individual judges’ nationality and grade. As far as I see all the potential competitors have already passed the MER except for one – more on that later – but they have until June 24 to satisfy that requirement.

Ten Teams for the Grand Prix Special Team event

So, first of all, the Teams; 15 nations have qualified and been awarded team positions and I briefly go through them next and finish up that part with predictions for the Team medals. Of the 15 Teams that perform in the Grand Prix, only 10 go on to the Grand Prix Special Team event, and that is decided by the sum of the three rider scores in the GP.

With no ‘drop scores’ every rider counts and that is another factor high on the list of importance for selectors, they can’t take risks on combinations that may be more likely to have issues in the arena, and I think this is actually good for welfare also – you cannot increase the risk of elimination as the moment one member of a team is eliminated in either GP or GPS, that team is out of the game.

So without further ado, the teams, in alphabetical order.

Australia

31 combinations satisfy my basic requirements to be selectable:
Lyndal Oatley/Elvive, David McKinnon/Forlan and Jayden Brown/Quincy B top the ranking with over 70% predicted for each. Simone Pearce follows up with three horses very very close behind the top 3. Prediction: 214.0 (expected in a range from 212.4 to 215.6

Austria

30 combinations with Victoria Max-Theurer/Abegglen, Florian Bacher/Fidertraum and Renate Voglsang/Ferdinand topping their list each above 71%. Victoria has Topas as a clear reserve with Chrisian Schumach having two possible horses just below those top three combinations. Prediction 216.8 (expected in a range from 214.3 to 219.4)

Belgium

22 combinations. Top of the list is Flore de Winne/Flynn who recently topped the Belgian championships, with Larissa Pauluis on Flambeau (reserve Valentin) with Jeroen Devroe on Fiderprincess. Domien Michiels/Intermezzo are the likely reserve. Defalque/Botticelli achieved an average of 68.02 over a 12-month period. At the Belgian Championships the other two medalists were Pauluis and Defalque. Prediction 212.3 (209.7 – 214.6)

Canada

Canada ran a major selection event in Ocala last weekend. 29 combinations with top of the list, both in Ocala and in the predictions, Naima Moreira Laliberte/Statesman, Jill Irving/Delacroix and Ariana Chia/Guateque with reserves Camille Cariere Bergeron/Finnlanderein or Chris Martels/Eclips. Predicted score 209.1 (205.4 – 211.6). Ryan Torkkeli/Sterenwanderer had a difficult weekend at Olomouc with atypical scores of 67% for GP and GPS, it remains to be seen if he can correct for that in the next weeks as prior to that he would have been in a stronger position for the team..

Denmark

Now we get to the first nation that has two combinations each of whom could score over 80%. 22 combinations performing at GP level with 12 of those having predictions larger than 70%, Denmark is clearly doing something right! No great surprise that Cathrine Laudrup-Dufour/Freestyle tops the list but also Nanna Skodborg Merrald/Zepter has really climbed the ranking to be a very close second. In the third slot Daniel Bachmann Andersen/Vayron, and then Nanna and Daniel alternate the next three reserve places! Carina Cassøe Krüth with a prediction of 74% sits in 7th place as the next actual different reserve rider. Team prediction 237.8! (As we will see later this puts Denmark in a very strong position for both Team and Individual medals!)

Finland

Has 21 contenders but Henri Rouste is clearly out on top with both Tiffanys Diamond and Quentano. Emma Kanerva occupies the next three slots with Greek Air, Feldrose and Mist of Titanium. For the third team slot Terhi Stegars/Quadrofilius with reserve Joanna Robinson/Glamourline or Stella Hagelstam/Kiss. A team prediction of 211.9, not at the top of the ranking but a superb opportunity for these athletes to represent their country at the top level.

France

This is a very interesting one. 23 combinations but with one of their top riders Morgan Barbançon under an FEI suspension pending review we have to assume for now that she is not eligible for selection.

The French Federation published a new shortlist last week but strangely it did not reflect the current performance predictions and indeed appeared to even contradict its earlier announced policy. Following the same algorithms as for the other Nations we would predict a team composed of Pauline Basquin/Sertorius, Corentin Pottier/Gotilas and Camille Judet Cheret/Heralja Higgins for a predicted team score of 213.9 (211.3-215.3).

However, the FFE seems to be proposing Basquin, Pottier and one of Alexandre Ayache/Jolene or Arnaud Serre/James Bond. While Ayache and Judet Cheret have almost identical predicted scores, Serre is some 4% lower. As will be noted later this could have a significant impact on the probability for France to reach the Team Competition (GPS) where essentially Australia, France, Portugal, Finland and Belgium are almost dead level in competition for the 9^th and 10^th rankings from the GP and separated by less than 2% in total Team score predictions

Great Britain

The second nation having two riders who we could reasonably expect to be above 80%. The top three are not surprising: Charlotte Dujardin/Imhotep, Charlotte Fry/Glamourdale and Carl Hester/Fame leading to a predicted Team score of 236.0 ( 232.9 – 238.5) Dujardin has a strong reserve in Alive and Kicking with Becky Moody/Jagerbomb being close behind with predictions around 74-75. As we will see Denmark, Germany and Great Britain are running almost dead level and any medal split between the three is possible.

Germany

Which brings us to the third of the three nations that are in such close contention for the three team medal places! With 81 candidates Germany is by far the richest Dressage nation, but 80+% horses are not so many. While Jessica Von Bredow-Werndl/Dalera are still at the top of the predicted ranking with a score over 82%, Frederic Wandres/Duke of Britain and Isabel Werth/Wendy are predicted at about 76.6% each. Wandres and Werth both have strong “reserves” in Bluetooth and Quantaz while Ingrid Klimke/Franziskus are also close at 75.8 in case one of them cannot compete for whatever reason. All in all, that leads to a team prediction of 236.2 (233.6 - 238.7)!

The Netherlands

39 Dutch riders satisfied my potential selection criteria. Considering just CDIs and not taking the national Dutch Championships into account (where the judges panel was all Dutch), the predicted team would be Edward Gal/Total US, Marlies Van Baalen/Habibi and Dinja Van Liere/Hartsuijker (or Hermes) for a team score of 223.8 with Emmelie Scholtens’ Indian Rock has almost identical scores as reserve.

But at last weekend’s National championships it was Hermes, Habibi and Indian Rock for a total of 226.6 just ahead of Total US. However, it is never clear if the actual scores at National finals have the same significance as those at a CDI. It will be very interesting to see if Hermes and Total US compete at an upcoming CDI before Paris. Total U.S. still needs his second MER and is gambling it all on his Rotterdam start. If something happens there or they get eliminated, they are ruled out of team selection for not achieving the MER.

Poland

Topping the ranking in Poland are Sandra Sysojeva/Bella, Katarzyna Milczarek/Guapo and Zaneta Skowronska-Kozubik/Love Me with a predicted team score of 209.3. As a reserve only Susanne Krohn/Titolas currently satisfy the MER requirement, but again, while not likely to be high in the ranking they will be representing their country at the highest level of the sport

Portugal

After some confusing times the Portuguese team is now clearly led by team trainer Kyra Kyrklund who has 34 combinations to chose from. Out at the top are João Pedro Moreira/ Furst Kennedy, Maria Caetano/Hit Plus and Rita Ralao Duarte/Irao. Their predicted Team score is 212.5 (209.5-214.5) which puts them with France in direct contention for a spot in the Team Final. It will be very close. Maria Caetano has Horizonte as a reserve along with Nuno Palma e Santos/Fortunity, Antonio Vale/Fine Fellow, and Maria Pais Do Amaral/Hot Hit.

Spain

47 combinations satisfying the basic requirements. Top three rides each with a prediction of 72% Jose Daniel Martin Dockx/Malagueno, José Antonio Garcia Mena/Gladiador, Alejandro Asencio Mendez/Sezarion with a close reserve Alejandro Sánchez del Barco/Quincallo leading to a predicted Team score of 216 (214.4-218.4)

Sweden

Sweden has of course Patrik Kittel/Jovian (or Touchdown), with Therese Nilshagen/Dante Weltino and Maria Von Essen/Invoice all performing at the highly respectable 73-75 level so with a predicted team score of 222.1(219.4-224.5). Juliette Ramel/Buriel and Sofie Lexner/Inoraline are the obvious reserves from the 32 combinations in my selection.

USA

The United States has 71 combinations, making them second only to Germany in terms of the number of International Grand Prix riders. Topping the ranking would be Adrienne Lyle/Helix, Steffen Peters/Suppenkasper and Endel Ots/Bohemian. Adrienne has a strong reserve in Lars Van De Hoenderheide. If they need to go outside that group of three riders then Anna Marek/Fire Fly, Jan Ebeling/Jubi's Tenacity (not short-listed) and Marcus Orlob/Jane are very close. USA predicted team score 216.1 (213.5-218.6)

Putting that all together

So, we summarize that in a graph. Three teams clearly stand out as essentially uncatchable unless something goes very wrong for one of them. But predicting the actual medal order is way too wild, really it could go any way!

The Netherlands and Sweden are clearly in the next group but with an almost 10% (sum of three scores) difference to the first three teams.

Austria, USA and Spain look safe to get to the Special, while Australia, France, Portugal, Finland and Belgium are fighting it out for the last two places to go to that Team Final.

Individuals

Fifteen nations can send individual riders the nations and likely combinations, if based just on scores and trends would be:

Norway - Isabel Freese – Total Hope
Ireland - Abigail Lyle - Giraldo
Luxembourg - Fie Christine Skarsoe – Imperador dos Centros (The Luxembourg NF will be selecting Nicolas Wagner as they decided to give him priority)
Switzerland - Andrina Suter - Fibonacci
Lithuania - Justina Vanagaite - Nabab
Moldova - Alisa Glinka – Aachen (although she is currently suspended, which throws into question the Moldova slot that may now go to Hungary, if they have a combination with two MER scores by June 24th.)
Morocco - Yessin Rahmouni – All at Once (this rider is still recovering from a neck fracture. Will he be fit on time?)
Palestine - Diana Al Shaer – Unazalee de Massa
New Zealand - Wendi Williamson – Don Vito
Singapore - Caroline Chew – Blue Hors Zatchmo
Ecuador - Julio Mendoza - Jewel's Goldstrike
Brazil - João Victor Marcari Oliva – Feel Good VO or Renderson Oliviera/Fogoso Campline
Dominican Republic - Yvonne Losos de Muñiz - Aquamarijn
Venezuela - Patricia Ferrando – Honnaisseur
India - Anush Agarwalla – Sir Caramello

Diana needs one more MER score to qualify as the first native born Palestinian rider to go to the Olympics, so wishing her the best of luck in next week’s competition in Le Mans and/or CDI Hagen

The Individual Medal – Freestyle

I am not brave enough to predict who will take which medals in the freestyle, indeed some of the top contenders have of course not been competing in the freestyles recently concentrating on the important scores for qualification and selection. What I can do is show the predicted GP scores for the top 25 riders- if selected by scores alone – and it will be the top 18 of those that actually go to the Freestyle Individual championship. What we can predict is that a GP score of about 73% will be needed to be a likely participant to the Freestyle, just as a team will likely need an average score of more than 71% to reach the Team Final. The ranking in the GP does not of course always translate to the same ranking in the Freestyle.

Now we all wait and watch for these last few weeks of selection events…