The Dressage Olympics are Over, but Next It Is Para Dressage

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-- By David Stickland / Global Dressage Analytics

On 3 September the 2024 Paralympic Dressage starts.

A Few Differences

The format for the Para-Dressage events is somewhat different than that we have just watched for the able-bodied. There are 5 Grades of qualification where athletes in Grade I have the most significant handicaps and those in Grade 5 the least. Each grade level performs different tests matching the challenges each Grade faces.

Even the arenas used are different, being 20x40m for Grades I, II and III; 20x60m for Grades IV and V. As in all the Paralympic sports every single athlete has overcome enormous challenges to be able to compete at all and has had to qualify in a highly competitive international circuit.

Three Medals to be Won

Unlike able-bodied there are 3, rather than 2, medal competitions:

An Individual competition for each grade with Gold, Silver and Bronze medal places. The Individual medal competitions use the FEI Para Grand Prix ‘A ‘tests
A Team competition only for the nominated 3 members of each team. The athletes compete in separate competitions according to their Grade using the FEI Para Grand Prix ‘B’ tests and the team score is the simple addition of the results of the 3 athletes. Gold, Silver, Bronze medals go to the 3 teams with the highest combined scores combining all 5 Grades
The 8 top ranked athletes in each Grade from competition 1 (Individual) qualify for the FEI Para Grand Prix Freestyle competitions, where there is again a Podium of three medalists for each Grade

The Road to Paris

The qualification routes are also more complex than for able-bodied. There are geographical Team qualifications in the same way and geographical Individual qualifications as well as places awarded by the Bipartite Commission.

Teams qualified by the geographical allocations can send 3 or 4 athletes. If they send 4 athletes then after the Individual medal competition at which all athletes participate, the Chef d’Equipe must decide which three athletes go forward to the Team medal event. Even then there are additional constraints! A team must have at least one member from Grades I, II or III and may not have more than two members from a single Grade.

Also, there are no travelling reserves in the Paralympics. All in all 78 athletes have qualified and are expected to travel to Versailles for the stable opening on 30 August: 21 in Grade I, 9 in Grade II, 14 in Grade III, 16 in Grade IV and 18 in Grade V.

Mix of Grades

As you see from the above, the number of athletes at each grade is not a constraint, and it depends entirely on the mix of Grades that the participating nations nominate. Of course, at this stage for the nations with 4 competing athletes we do not know which 3 will be selected for the team event so I work on the assumption that, once the Grade distribution rules are applied, the 3 with the highest predicted scores will probably form the teams – but in reality this will be a strategic decision managed by the Chefs d’Equipe. The schedule of events – that may still be internally modified - calls for:

Individual Grades III, II, I medal events on Tuesday September 3^rd;
Individual Grades IV, V medal events on Wednesday September 4^th;
A rest day on September 5^th;
The Team medal event - in the order IV, V, I, II, III - on Thursday September 6^th;
The Freestyle medal events for all 5 Grades in the order IV, V, I, II, III on Friday September 7^th.

So how might the medals play out?

Predicting Paradressage scores is even more fraught than those for able -bodied dressage. Though I take the liberty of boasting a little – for the Olympics the average difference of reality to prediction was just -0.25% with a Standard Deviation of about 1.25% - though for Para I expect this Standard Deviation to be more like 2-3% so feel free to add or subtract about 2-3% to each predicted score, or about 4-5% for team Scores.

Additionally, teams with more lower Grade riders have a slight advantage over teams with mostly higher grades as the score distributions are slightly higher for the lower grades!

So how might the Team event be expected to go.

USA has the highest predictions, closely followed by Netherlands, Germany and Great Britain

Individual Predictions

As for the Olympics, I prefer not to publish the individual predictions to avoid any risks of introducing any form of bias. But we can summarize the main predictions for each Grade.

Grade I

Has the most competitors and a favourite for the Gold medal must be Roxanne Trunnell of the USA, she took the Gold in Tokyo on her previous horse Dolton but brings a new star Fan Tastico to Paris. Rihards Snikus of Latvia with his Tokyo silver medalist King of the Dance and it’s a very tight competition for Bronze between Sara Morganti of Italy on Maribelle (Bronze in Tokyo on Royal Delight), Annamarieke Nobel of Netherlands on Doo Schufro and Mari Durwood of Great Britain on Athene Lindebjerg. Predicting a score of about 71.5 to qualify for the Freestyle

Grade II

Has the fewest competitors, just 9. Again, the American rider Fiona Howard on Diamond Dunes must be favourite for Gold, but after that it gets very messy! Heidemarie Dresing of Germany on Dooloop, Pepo Puch (Sliver Tokyo) of Austria on Sailor’s Blue and Georgia Wilson (Bronze Tokyo) of Great Britain on Sakura look to be in tight competition for Silver and Bronze.

Grade III

Returning Tobias Thorning Jorgensen of Denmark on Jolene Hill (Tokyo Gold) is narrowly favorite. Closely followed by Rebecca Hart of USA on Floratina, Rixt Van Der Horst of Netherlands on Fonq and Chiara Zenati of France with the home crowd on Swing Royal. And to be honest Natasha Baker of Great Britain and Francesca Salvade of Italy are in contention for the medals also. This looks to be almost the most competitive of the Grades! Estimating about 70 needed to reach the Freestyle.

Grade IV

Three combinations at the top of the predictions with almost identical predicted scores: Demi Haerkens of Netherlands on Daula, Kate Shoemaker of USA on Vianne and Anna-Lena Niehues of Germany on Quimbaya with Demi’s team mate and Tokyo Gold medalist Sanne Voets on Demantur in strong contention also. Estimating 70.5 needed to reach the freestyle

Grade V

Finally, the highest grade with a large field of competitors. Top of the predictions Regine Mispelkamp of Germany on Highlander Delight’s, 4^th in Tokyo by a narrow margin, she must be looking to get a medal this year. Rodolpho Riskalla of Brazil on Denzel hasn’t competed so much this year but they are in strong contention along with the redoubtable Sophie Wells of Great Britain though she has switched from Don Cara (Silver in Tokyo) to Samoa at the last minute for Paris. And then there is the Gold medalist from Tokyo Michelle George of Belgium returning on Best of 8. Looking for a score of about 70 to qualify for the freestyle

In Conclusion

Strong fields of both returning medalists and new combinations are going to ensure that these games are highly competitive and with no assured medalists – may the games begin.

-- By David Stickland / Global Dressage Analytics